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MANIFOLD
Will the WvM market close before Apr 25th ET?
9
Ṁ190Ṁ7.4k
resolved Apr 27
Resolved
NO

Resolve Yes if the bitcoin block is mined with a hash that ends in "00" happened before Apr 25th 12:00am ET (after "psedorandom close mode" started)

Resolve No otherwise


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@tornado This can resolve

predictedYES

This should be 28.9 %

predictedNO

@WalFisch There are 3 hours in random mode between WvM switching over and the deadline of this market, which make for about 18 blocks. Each block has a 1/256 chance of ending the market, so this should be about 7%?

predictedYES

@wylderai Doesnt it switch on the 24.?

predictedNO

@WalFisch yeah it switches on the 24th at 21:30 ET, which is 2:30 before midnight in the 25th

@wylderai And this market closes on April 25th 12:00am so 14.5 hours

predictedNO

@WalFisch 12am is midnight, 12pm is noon

@wylderai Wow im just stupid

@WalFisch Not used to am and pm

predictedYES

@WalFisch But also stupid