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MANIFOLD
If OPTIC hosts a tournament around Boston in the second half of 2023, will there be at least 100 in-person attendees?
18
Ṁ745Ṁ20k
resolved Dec 5
Resolved
NO

Background: The first iteration of the Open Prediction Tournament for Intercollegiate Competition was held in Cambridge, Massachusetts in April 2023. There were a bit over 30 attendees.

The current OPTIC organizers (myself, @saulmunn, and @JingyiWang) will not bet on this market.

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Oh no this resolves on dec 31st! The opportunity cost! Does anyone want to buy my shares at 97%?

@TheBayesian yep sure, I have a bit floating around

predictedNO

@toms i hadn’t thought of this but a mod recommended I ask: since we now ~know this resolves NO, are you planning to resolve the market early?

predictedNO

(edit: this was essentially asked in an earlier comment)

79 signups right now, with 61 expected.

@saulmunn 90 signups, 69 expected.

predictedYES

nice

update: bay area comp had 80 competitors. :)

@saulmunn how many of those signed up in the final couple days (or were 'walk-ins', if that's a thing)?

@BenjaminCosman most, with zero walk-ins!

about 1/3 were in the last few days, but the proportion of that 1/3 who ended up actually coming was much higher than the proportion of the 2/3 who signed up earlier.

Symbolically betting M$1 to indicate my own interest.

(I'd like to advertise it to the other locals but I am not good at postering.)

🥳