CST
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,859 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,609 | |
| 3 | Ṁ606 | |
| 4 | Ṁ443 | |
| 5 | Ṁ329 |
@JackSkellington because then people predict an event, and then it either happens or it doesn't and it pays out like a bet.
If I let it go right up until it actually happens, then the best strategy is just wait til the last second, then max out your bets on the thing that already is winning.
@TheSaltDealer I don't think you understand how this site works. People who bet on the right option early make more money.
@notmachine but the more money put on the "correct" answer, the more it dilutes the money people put into the other bets. It actually does the opposite of what you are saying. This is because this doesn't work like the stock options, where each share is worth a certain amount of money that depends on how much people invest. Others actually dilute your stake.
For example, I bought 70$ at 30%. It's currently at 90%, you'd think my bet was worth 3x as much, but it's not, it's only worth 120$, because other people are putting money into the pool.
It works like horse race betting, but in this case, we can bet on the horse as it's running the race and it gets closer to the end. Yes people who bet early can make more money, but if you actually hold instead of sell early, you get shafted hard.
This gets more complicated as others buy and sell, taking money out of the pool for me.
@TheSaltDealer Ah, so essentially, if a whale puts more money into the correct answer, they siphon all the money from all the wrong options since they have more shares.
@thesourceofsound I think the close date (when trading ends) can be separate from when you resolve it, but it's probably too late now?
@notmachine ah gotcha, yah too late. I'll fix that next time. I think closing it a few hours before makes more sense
@thesourceofsound, @notmachine, @JackSkellington
Hi guys, Salt is right, but I want to point out that the multiple-choice markets and the yes/no markets use two different systems.
In the yes/no markets, payouts are fixed: every yes share pays out M$1 on YES, so it's fine to leave those markets open to the very end: nothing later traders can do will affect your payout.
But the multiple-choice markets use a different system that nobody completely understands, in which the prize money gets split between shareholders of the winning option.