Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027
US Politics•AI•Technology
26
232
Ṁ470
2027
36%
chance

Must be in relation to Paul's role in AI Safety, and must be a standing US president

Resolves YES on any conclusive evidence that this has happened

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Paul Christiano named head of US AI Safety Institute

https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2024/04/us-commerce-secretary-gina-raimondo-announces-expansion-us-ai-safety

https://twitter.com/sharongoldman/status/1765966941318005056?t=YLJyRiqBuiFkHFkopUyOqw&s=19

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-president-of-the-united-states-shakes-about-46000-hands-a-year-2011-6 Base rates are pretty high

predicts NO

Still unclear how many of those people are random citizens at events, vs people that have been invited to meet the president in their official working capacity?

predicts NO

For what it's worth, Arc evals and the alignment problem are on Obama's radar 👀

https://x.com/ARC_Evals/status/1719467877622010006?s=20

https://x.com/ShakeelHashim/status/1723033393665905100?s=20

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