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MANIFOLD
Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027
37
Ṁ1kṀ4k
Jan 2
19%
chance

Must be in relation to Paul's role in AI Safety, and must be a standing US president

Resolves YES on any conclusive evidence that this has happened

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Paul Christiano named head of US AI Safety Institute

https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2024/04/us-commerce-secretary-gina-raimondo-announces-expansion-us-ai-safety

https://twitter.com/sharongoldman/status/1765966941318005056?t=YLJyRiqBuiFkHFkopUyOqw&s=19

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-president-of-the-united-states-shakes-about-46000-hands-a-year-2011-6 Base rates are pretty high

predictedNO

Still unclear how many of those people are random citizens at events, vs people that have been invited to meet the president in their official working capacity?

predictedNO

For what it's worth, Arc evals and the alignment problem are on Obama's radar 👀

https://x.com/ARC_Evals/status/1719467877622010006?s=20

https://x.com/ShakeelHashim/status/1723033393665905100?s=20

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