Full question: "chance that I will be able to purchase an off-the-shelf robot for under USD 100,000 that can perform at least one household task that requires the ability to grasp and manipulate objects (e.g., wash dishes, make a meal, fold laundry)"

Resolution Criteria:

You actually have to be able to buy this thing, and it has to work most of the time (roughly as often as a reasonably competent, non-expert human). I don't need "high-end restaurant chef"; a "reasonable home cook" is good enough. It also doesn't have to be as fast as a human, but it has to be able to achieve the end goal to a reasonable degree of correctness. So: it's okay to take five minutes to fold a single shirt, as long as if I start it in the morning and when I get back from work, all my laundry is folded properly. But it would not be okay if took ten hours to cook a meal, because I'm not willing to wait that long for dinner.

Motivation and Context:

Robotics is still a hard problem. Despite all of the recent advances in language modeling, and in vision, and in speech recognition, we still don't have household robots that can do anything useful. But will this continue to be true? Will we (soon) get robots that can accomplish standard household tasks?

Question copied from: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/forecasting-ai-future.html