@ManifoldPolitics What do we do about a possibly abandoned market?

Milton is currently sitting at #6 and there's not likely to be a major update to the damage number at this point.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes

@thepurplebull

Can you resolve this one based on the numbers so far? Or do you plan on waiting until the end of the year?

Hurricane Milton could cause as much as $175 billion in damage, according to early estimates -CNBC

Milton could cause $245B in damages — making it the costliest hurricane in US history -NYpost

Seems like there's arbitrage here https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-a-hurricane-that-strikes-the-u?play=true

Those numbers aren't inflation adjusted. Iiuc you'd need more than 200bn to surpass Katrina in real terms.

but the description doesn't specify "200bn" or "inflation adjusted"

which is why this has a good chance of happening

@pluffASMR eh, after adjusting for inflation 125bn would still make it the 3rd costliest hurricane in American history, which is certainly possible but priors are against it.

@pluffASMR correct, but again, it's one of those clickbaity titles (whether intentional or not) where the market seems to be giving a high percentage to something that it isn't actually measuring

@Fay42 and it isn't just inflation, more people are moving to Florida, the population is booming in comparison to other regions, meaning more things of value to destroy

@Fay42 This market is strictly evaluating nominal damages, the absolute dollar amount. Yes, if we adjust for inflation, Katrina was significantly costlier than Harvey. But that’s a market for someone else to make.

/mattyb/hurricane-helene-will-cause-more-co