Resolves YES if nominal property damages meet or exceed US$125 billion* according to the soonest official NOAA median estimate.
*$125 billion is the record set by both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Harvey. If Hurricane Helene is found by NOAA to exceed $125 billion in damages, Hurricane Milton must additionally meet or exceed that record.
1,000
3.00Milton is currently sitting at #6 and there's not likely to be a major update to the damage number at this point.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes
Can you resolve this one based on the numbers so far? Or do you plan on waiting until the end of the year?
Seems like there's arbitrage here https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-a-hurricane-that-strikes-the-u?play=true
Those numbers aren't inflation adjusted. Iiuc you'd need more than 200bn to surpass Katrina in real terms.
@pluffASMR eh, after adjusting for inflation 125bn would still make it the 3rd costliest hurricane in American history, which is certainly possible but priors are against it.
@pluffASMR correct, but again, it's one of those clickbaity titles (whether intentional or not) where the market seems to be giving a high percentage to something that it isn't actually measuring
@Fay42 and it isn't just inflation, more people are moving to Florida, the population is booming in comparison to other regions, meaning more things of value to destroy
@Fay42 This market is strictly evaluating nominal damages, the absolute dollar amount. Yes, if we adjust for inflation, Katrina was significantly costlier than Harvey. But that’s a market for someone else to make.