This will be Resolved two weeks after Hurricane Milton has been downgraded below a Tropical Depression based on which storm has a higher estimated total cost of damages, according to Wikipedia (mana market edit: and a few other reputable sources, comparing each sources reporting of both storms. If there are overlapping ranges, or there’s no clear consensus and they’re listed as being equally damaging, this will Resolve NO, per the description as originally written).
If there’s a range of damages, this will look at the top of the range for both storms. If this is a tie, it will Resolve NO.
1,000
3.00I asked Perplexity how to resolve this:
Based on the available information, it appears that Hurricane Helene was likely more costly overall than Hurricane Milton, though both storms caused extensive damage:
Hurricane Helene:
- Estimated to have caused at least $53 billion in damages and recovery needs in North Carolina alone[4][6].
- Caused widespread devastation across multiple southeastern states, with 214 total fatalities[4].
- Florida reported $13.4 billion in insured losses just within that state[4].
- Total economic costs across all affected areas could potentially reach $100-200 billion, according to some estimates[3].
Hurricane Milton:
- Insured losses estimated in the $50-60 billion range[3].
- Total economic damage, including both insured and uninsured losses, estimated at nearly $100 billion[1].
- Moody's estimates combined insured losses from Milton and Helene could range from $35-55 billion[1].
While the full costs are still being assessed for both storms, Helene appears to have caused more widespread damage across multiple states. The $53 billion estimate for North Carolina alone from Helene exceeds most of the damage estimates provided for Milton. Additionally, Helene caused significantly more fatalities (214 vs. 11 reported for Milton)[4][5].
It's important to note that these figures are still preliminary and may change as more comprehensive assessments are completed. However, based on the current available data, Hurricane Helene seems to have been the more costly of the two storms overall.
Sources
[1] Hurricane Milton - how big will insurers' losses be? https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/catastrophe/hurricane-milton--how-big-will-insurers-losses-be-509676.aspx
[2] Hurricane Helene could cost property owners more than $47B as ... https://abc7.com/post/helene-could-cost-property-owners-more-47-billion-hurricane-milton-threatens-us/15404526/
[3] Helene, Milton losses expected to surpass "truly historic" $50 billion ... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/helene-milton-losses-50-billion-each-hurricanes-rare/
[4] Hurricane Helene damage estimated at $53bn, as US relief bill passes https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/24/hurricane-helene-damage-estimated-at-53bn-as-us-relief-bill-passes
[5] What impact did climate change have on Hurricane Milton? https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/10/14/hurricane-milton-costs-florida-billions-in-damage-and-wreaks-havoc-on-countless-lives
[6] Hurricane Helene's damage, related expenses in North Carolina shattering
records, estimated at $53 billion https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-helenes-north-carolina-damage-53-billion-record/
Ultimately, when you look at everyone that’s reporting on both storms today (largely government officials with access to private data - your Governors and Presidents, and then what public statements the rating agencies will put out - your Moody’s and CoreLogic’s).
When you piece together all of the data that’s available today (and two weeks feels awfully short right now…) more agencies are saying that Helene was more expensive than Milton. It’s not a tie, it’s a slight majority - albeit it’s very close with the still early numbers. This Resolves YES!
(I threw out ratings which only reported for one storm, or that only talked about partial damages - the insured one is here, but others only listed single counties/states, or only wind).
@WilliamGunn that description was edited multiple weeks ago, in a post that tagged all traders. i either informed you of this a comment, or this was in the description when you traded.
don’t love the 2 star review.
@mattyb thanks for the detailed breakdown of the sources that informed your resolution process.
I believe the decision to describe CoreLogic’s ranges as “non-significantly overlapping” is questionable, there are no confidence intervals on these estimates so it cannot be ruled out that Milton > Helene, and as per your description I would have expected this to contribute to the NO side.
@Nightsquared m’dude, calmness is a virtue. You’ve been extremely eager this entire market. When you wrote this comment, I was 45mins into investing this. Good resolutions take time.
Exact resolution timing seems to matter, since the numbers on wiki have been changed today. Milton was downgraded at 11 am pacific time on the 10th:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al14/al142024.public_a.022.shtml?
(This is also shown in a source below)
Wiki currently shows Helene as more costly, but this change was made 2 hours ago:
The most recent edit at 11 am pacific time was this:
Of course, up to Manifold how to handle this.
@DistinctlySkeptical I think it changed both-number on the left is sort, number on right is visual
(This was a response to this:
Which has since been edited)
It is clear in Wiki edits the malicious changes are made by some one or some people who can not spell, are anonymous, using a VPN, and/or lacking citations on their edits. Also the wiki edits that were malicious all have poor ratings by Wiki whereas the good edits made show a positive rating. (Sadly I kind of expected this once Manifold stated they'd stick with the wiki criteria.)
They don't source, and the numbers seem high, but qualitatively?
https://jaxtoday.org/2024/10/17/hurricane-milton-numbers/
Preliminary estimates of the total damage and economic loss from historic Hurricane Milton is between $160 billion and $180 billion dollars. Milton will go down as one of the most damaging and impactful storms in Florida’s history. Hurricane Helene’s total damage and economic loss is estimated around $225 billion to $250 billion.
@Nightsquared We will try and adhere as closely as possible to the description around the time the sweepstakes contract was created. In this instance that would mean using Wikipedia as the primary source.