Market resolves YES if Trump announces Vivek as his vice presidential running mate at any point in the 2024 election, even if this is later rescinded.

OR

At the close of the market, l will ask the FairlyRandom bot in the comments for a random number between 1 and 10, eg “@FairlyRandom 10”. If that number is 1, market resolves YES.

Market resolves NO only if both if Vivek is not selected, AND I roll a number other than 1.

Edit: It seems like this market may not actually be useful in the way as I originally stated in the market description (in italics below). I'll leave the text here for posterity, but it should probably be ignored. Note that the resolution criteria for the market have not changed in any way.

Various markets (see below) agree that there is a low chance of Trump selecting Vivek Ramaswamy for his VP candidate in 2024. However, they disagree on just HOW low, with likelihoods ranging from 2% to 5%, more than a factor of 2(!). One can imagine various reasons for these discrepancies, but presumably one of them is the lack of mana incentive to bet a market from, say, 5% to 3%, even if 3% is closer to the bettor's true estimate.

This market is an experiment to try to obtain a more accurate estimate by artificially boosting the incentive to bet NO, at the cost of introducing randomness.