Background
Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan have been married since 2012. Recent internet speculation and memes have suggested potential marital issues, though there is currently no evidence of divorce proceedings or separation between the couple.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan officially file for divorce before July 21, 2025 (18 months from January 2024). The market will resolve NO if:
No divorce is filed within the 18-month timeframe
Either party passes away before a divorce is finalized
Resolution will be based on credible media reports or official court records. Legal separation or informal separation without divorce proceedings will not count as YES.
Considerations
The couple reportedly has a prenuptial agreement in place
The resolution of this market depends on publicly available information, which may lag behind private proceedings
1,000
3.00Wait, the market resolves yes if they file, but resolves no if either one dies before the divorce is finalized? Is the resolution criteria filing, or finalization? If they file tomorrow, does the market resolve tomorrow, or does it resolve when the divorce is finalized without one of them dying first? And what if they file but then reconcile and call the divorce off before it's finalized?
@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Given that this market was created literally today, can you confirm that the timing criteria and title match?
Mark Zuckerberg Divorced within 18 months?
This market will resolve YES if Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan officially file for divorce before July 21, 2025 (18 months from January 2024).
@snazzlePop Yeah, I was going to apply the Lindy Effect heuristic to a NO bet, but now I'm hesitant.