Mark Zuckerberg Divorced within 18 months?

120

1kṀ21k

2026

chance

ALL

Background
Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan have been married since 2012. Recent internet speculation and memes have suggested potential marital issues, though there is currently no evidence of divorce proceedings or separation between the couple.

Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan officially file for divorce before July 21, 2026 (18 months from January 2025). The market will resolve NO if:

No divorce is filed within the 18-month timeframe
Either party passes away before a divorce is filed

Resolution will be based on credible media reports or official court records. Legal separation or informal separation without divorce proceedings will not count as YES.

Considerations

The couple reportedly has a prenuptial agreement in place
The resolution of this market depends on publicly available information, which may lag behind private proceedings

Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
- The market is based on a tweet observed by the creator, although the creator is unable to locate the tweet.

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Can you put deadline in title? It is not clear now

bought Ṁ100 YES

Rivelino says she’s out, good enough for me.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Healthy sex drive

sorry traders this market is based on a tweet i saw but i cannot find the tweet

ack sorry guys i did the ai generated description. resolving the issues now.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf the new AI generated update gets it wrong again.

@harfe lolololol

Wait, the market resolves yes if they file, but resolves no if either one dies before the divorce is finalized? Is the resolution criteria filing, or finalization? If they file tomorrow, does the market resolve tomorrow, or does it resolve when the divorce is finalized without one of them dying first? And what if they file but then reconcile and call the divorce off before it's finalized?

@LeifKBrooks resolved the issue

sold Ṁ100 NO

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Given that this market was created literally today, can you confirm that the timing criteria and title match?

Mark Zuckerberg Divorced within 18 months?

This market will resolve YES if Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan officially file for divorce before July 21, 2025 (18 months from January 2024).

@Quroe oof. Yeah. I even looked at (and misread) the market creation date as being from 2024.

@snazzlePop Yeah, I was going to apply the Lindy Effect heuristic to a NO bet, but now I'm hesitant.

@Quroe sorry, resolved the issue

bought Ṁ12 NO

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Out of curiosity, was it originally populated by the AI auto-writer? If so, I might ping somebody in Manifold staff and tell them they might need to update the model to know that 2025 is here.