Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan be happily married and monogamous for life?

1kṀ2024

2200

36%

chance

ALL

Resolves NO if there is infidelity, an open marriage, polyamory, a divorce, or separate living arrangements.

Resolves YES if one of them dies before any incidence of the above

Resolves NO if one of them kills the other

If they upload their minds to new bodies, that counts as death for the purpose of this question. If they create clones, I may also count that as death. Same with neuralink or really comprehensive prostheses (new head, etc).

EDIT 20240228: Resolves NO if one kills the other on purpose. Resolves YES if one kills the other by accident.

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How will you know if they are open? Are rumors enough?

I’ll use my best judgement, but the existence of a few rumors probably won’t qualify. Needs to be widely accepted or backed up by evidence

bought Ṁ40 YES

Betting, but can you clarify just in case: would an accidental killing (e.g. Zuck trips while demonstrating his new katana and accidentally stabs her) resolve to YES? That's in the spirit of the question but technically as described this would be a NO. If there's ambiguity on this we could run a separate market or poll re accidental death versus make-it-look-like-an-accident.

@ByrneHobart Thank you for the clarification. An accident as described would resolve to YES.

Of course, if it is ambiguous, I will resolve based on prevailing opinion some time after the incident.

bought Ṁ10 YES

The prior on divorce is somewhere under 50%. Should be adjusted lower for high IQ and long history of stable marriage with children and neither having been divorced before, probably somewhat higher for being a weird rich guy. A bit higher for the poly option. I still think it should wind up below 50% (so this question should be above it).