If I find out who won the election before 2 weeks after the election how will it happen?
💎
Premium
129
Ṁ130k
resolved Nov 12
100%82%Other
0.9%
Friend or family member spills the beans
0.9%
I ‘accidentally’ check twitter/news/instagram
1.1%
Work email or slack
0.8%
Anonymous person sends me a text/signal/instagram/email message
5%
I see a newspaper, magazine, billboard, or TV screen
1.7%
A Manifolder finds a way to leak it to you in order to win the "Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?" market
0.8%
A parade or riot errupts in Downtown San Francisco, alerting me
0.5%
homeless person with a loudspeaker
3%
Overheard in a coffee shop or on the street or bus
1.4%
N/A I don’t find out
1.6%
A poster or street art

I have the intention of not finding out who won the election until 2 weeks after the election.

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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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I can't believe nobody had added "stumbling on a Trump book on an antiques auctioning page" as an answer

So, what did it?

@Marnix EBAY RESULTS??? NOOOOOOOOO

What if I post a comment here saying trump won (which he did)? Will a moderator remove it?

that's fine

bought Ṁ200 A Manifolder finds a... YES

Apparently they’re (from comment on original market) going to a silent retreat in Mexico from 12-20 — either there are more than one of those or we are on the same one and i will succeed in leaking the winner to them.

Already bought my position.

bought Ṁ250 A Manifolder finds a... YES

I believe in you!
Just make sure to clarify exactly who you are and why you did this, for this to resolve appropriately!

@ibbi wait, what's the plan once you arrive at the silent retreat? wait until everyone's meditating together and then shout the name out loud? stalk random strangers one by one until you find the one stranger who has a binder full of printed tweets? you'll need to make sure the information is fully delivered before you get kicked out for disturbing the participants. and don't forget, TBTBTB is equipped with super powerful earplugs and very very dark sunglasses

not revealing anything further publicly!

@ibbi Made that option as a joke that would ~never happen, so I bet 1000M NO when I made it. Will be the funniest bad beat ever if it does happen.

@ibbi Now that we have resolution, will you give us more details about what the plan was?

@xlp presumably we have to wait another 8 days, doubt the silent retreat encourages posting on manifold. if they don't get to execute their ruse at least they can enjoy some mindfulness

@fwbt okay lol

I started and then steered 2 conversations in very clear earshot while she was alone where the result was dropped multiple times with basically no deniability. Thought it was important to have others involved in case she would say “idk what side of the market you’re on” to have “verifiers”

Apparently she found out literally right before on this magazine site? Bad beat

@TBTBTB it was right after the first dinner on the way to Buddha hall where I’m 100% sure you overheard us lol

What if you overhear it in a TV screen in a coffeeshop?

@shoe If it’s a sound wave it’s overheard. If it’s a light beam from the tv it’s the screen

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf and if you smell the answer?

@AndrewMcKnight wish she had addressed your question

How will this resolve if you don’t find out? N/A?

@Conflux I hadn’t thought of that. I will add N/A

bought Ṁ50 Other YES

random person mentioning "ugh, I'm not ready for another four years" at a coffee shop or something seems like a likely category

@AndrewG or it could be something subtle like yard signs being taken down

@AndrewG another four years of what? you picked such an ambiguous phrasing

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