This market will resolve TRUE if a terror attack, with or without any victims, is conducted by at least one person who crossed the southern US border. This attack does not have to occur within the continental United States, nor does the entire group conducting the attack have to have entered the US via the southern border, nor does the southern border crossing have to be the last entry made into the United States by the people who carried out the attack. I will interpret "terror attack" broadly; systems disruption attacks with no casualties will also qualify if they can be credibly linked to a person or persons crossing the southern border.
In order to qualify, the attacker(s) will have had to have crossed the US-Mexico border after Jan 01 2020, which is slightly before the start of the US-Mexico Border Crisis as per Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico%E2%80%93United_States_border_crisis
Some context:
Ten retired FBI directors and experts in counter intelligence sent a letter to congressional leaders warning that President Joe Biden’s border policies have facilitated a “soft invasion” into the U.S. of military-age men coming from terror-linked regions, China and Russia.
They argue a terrorist attack is likely imminent but preventable.
“The threat we call out today is new and unfamiliar. In its modern history the U.S. has never suffered an invasion of the homeland, and, yet, one is unfolding now. Military age men from across the globe, many from countries or regions not friendly to the United States, are landing in waves on our soil by the thousands – not by splashing ashore from a ship or parachuting from a plane bur rather by foot across a border that has been accurately advertised around the world as largely unprotected with ready access granted.”
“It would be difficult to overstate the danger represented by the presence inside our borders of what is comparatively a multi division army of young single adult males from hostile nations and regions whose background, intent, or allegiance is completely unknown.”
As written, this question has no start time, but I think given the fact this market was created largely to test the prediction made in the linked open letter, it would be fair to say any attackers would have to have crossed either during Joe Biden's presidency or possibly prior.
It's possible that the recent Texas megachurch shooter, an immigrant from El Salvador, crossed the US-Mexico border, but I'm leaning against resolving for that because that crossing would have taken place prior to 2005, which seems against the spirit of this market.
I'd appreciate feedback, this is my first market.
@tedks it seems reasonable and in the spirit of the market to use the beginning of the Biden presidency as the relevant start date. It would be good if you could update the description to include that, so that people don’t have to read through the comments.
@ansgar Thank you, I've decided based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico%E2%80%93United_States_border_crisis to use the start of 2020 as the start date for this market, and have updated the description.