Martial law in Russia before March 7th?

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Martial law allows the Russian government to restrict various freedoms of its citizens, including installation of a curfew, restriction of freedom of movement, restriction of choice of place of residence, forced labor for defense needs, seizure of private property with subsequent compensation, and internment of unreliable citizens and citizens of aggressor countries. Before April 2022, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories? Mar 3, 10:39pm: Before April 2022 should read "before March 7th"

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bought Ṁ1 of NO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_emergency_in_Russia is what tends to be used for internal threats, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia tends to be used for external threats. Given the rarity of these events, the fact that Martial Law would probably mean Ukraine or someone else was invading Russia, I don't think Martial Law is all that likely. On the other hand, a State of Emergency would be to forestall an insurrection, political instability etc. which is much more plausible. But there's a day left, and I don't think an insurrection is going to happen in the next 24 hours. Maybe 0.1-0.5% chance of it occuring.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@WilliamKiely, you can try playing the market participants that way, but if they see what you're doing they can also buy NO during your move.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Thanks for the replies tb and Gurkenglas! Gurkenglas, my reply was honest; I genuinely don't think I'm particularly well-informed on this. I know what peiple shared in the comments of the Metaculus Russia border closure question (which I know other Manifold users have seen/engaged with) and that's basically it. The way that commenting honestly still makes a difference is that what I entered the market quickly with commenting, dropping the price from 47 to 22. I could have entered it more slowly giving others the opportunity to buy in the other direction such that the other shares were purchased when the price was higher, and commented to let people know that I wasn't confident in my bet, but was just reading the evidence differently than others and taking a large risk putting all my money in one question due to not caring about being risk averse.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@WilliamKiely, (1) Yes, Payout if YES assumes nobody trades afterwards. (2) Yes, but note that this market is likely to close at one of the two extremes. (3) Yes, but your reply rang true and it'd be bad for your reputation if it came out that you lied. See https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/explain-market-math-geometrically for a picture of how it works.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@William Kiely Disclaimer: I may be wrong, not a manifold staff member You buy a number of shares (seen below for stuff you bought, or if you hover over "Payout if XX" (i) symbol). When market resolves the pool is equally split between shares that correspond to resolution.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I'm confused by how questions pay out. I was just quoted for a payout of 74 when I bought these 50 NOs. A few questions: (1) Might that payout change depending on the final price when the market closes? (2) If so, do I profit more if this market closes at a higher price but still resolves negatively? (3) Is it the case that I would have secured a higher (potential) payout for my same investment amount if I had waited for you to buy the price back up (and incited you to do this by commenting that I'm ignorant) such that I bought NOs when the price was higher?

bought Ṁ450 of YES

Then may the better prediction win.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@Gurkenglas All the recent No activity was me. I'm new to participating in this question. I don't know much; I'm just reporting my belief as if this were Metaculus without regard for losing all my money since I don't feel invested in this site. I choose to put almost all my money into this question not because I'm confident the market price was wrong, but because it's an important question. (In fact, I identified a few other questions where I *am* very confident the price is wrong; I just didn't care about those questions as much. I don't feel similarly confident about this question, since again I don't think I am particularly informed.)

sold Ṁ180 of YES

I have a hunch that someone knows something I don't what is it? I could sell more if you give me a reason.

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