I recently had a twitter thread where I briefly pointed out the problems with Bayesianism for Eliezer Yudkowsky. Obviously as a major advocate of Bayesianism, he disagreed in the thread itself. But I think my position has a lot of merit, so I suspect he will get convinced by it as he thinks it through.

This market as a general rule resolves YES if any of the following have occured by the end of 2025:

• Eliezer writes a blog post advocating positions similar to LDSL/backbone conjecture

• Eliezer withdraws his position in the twitter thread

• Eliezer endorses vitalism, mesmerism, paganism, or similar (I am ambivalent about whether platonism or the great chain of being counts here; I'm inclined to say 'yes'), or withdraws on bayesianism (unsure whether withdrawing on reductionism should count; I'm inclined to say 'no')

That said, if e.g. Eliezer objects to resolving this YES, or the general consensus disagrees with the resolution by the time of resolution