Resolves to the PROB I assign to the notion of "IQ tests measure intelligence", which I will likely translate into "IQ tests measure g and g is intelligence" unless I get convinced that g is not a good way of thinking about IQ tests.

At the time of making this market, I feel like IQ tests measure general cognitive abilities (g), that is, things which are useful across a wide variety of cognitive tasks. So if there's something about your mind that is useful for both playing video games, understanding the meaning of words, being good at programming, etc., then that thing is going to be measured by IQ tests. However, I think it is limited what useful things IQ tests measure beyond g.

At the time of making this market, I think g is a big component in the everyday concept known as "intelligence", but I doubt that it is the only thing that people think of as intelligence. Other things I think people might think of as intelligence include:

• Ability to deal with the most common situations everyone encounters, e.g. being socially skilled, not clumsy, having common sense (this is affected by g, but not identical to g, because factors that only affect ability to deal with common situations and don't generalize well would still be considered intelligence)

• Ability to deal with the most common situations one uniquely encounters, e.g. being good at one's job, specialty and hobbies (this is again affected by g, but not identical to g, because factors that only affect this and don't affect general abilities would count as intelligence but not g)

• Having stereotypically intellectual interests e.g. math, science, history, or high-brow politics (again this may be affected by g if g affects ability in those areas and ability affects interests, but it is not identical to g if there are unique factors that influence interests)

• Agreeing with and defending society's taboos, even when they are wrong

This is not meant to be an exhaustive list, though I think these are the most convincing possible alternatives to g. Since it is not exhaustive, shooting down these possibilities might not entirely convince me that IQ tests measure intelligence, though since it is the most convincing alternatives, it would definitely update me upwards.

An example of something that would convince me that IQ tests measure the commonsense concept of intelligence would be a study showing that if you have ask informants who know people well to rank people's intelligence, then the g factor has a correlation of >0.8 with the latent informant consensus factor. It is currently my understanding that the correlation is more like 0.5-0.7, though I haven't seen a satisfactory study yet to be sure.

I will not be trading in this market.