Will this market's probability ever drop below 30% before it closes?

Question

Starts at 35%. If enough NO buying pushes the probability below 30% at any point before close, this resolves YES - it doesn't matter where it ends up, only whether it ever crossed 30%. Resolves by checking this market's probability history for any point below 30%.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (2 traders, as of Sep 1, 2026).

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