Will this market close with its probability within 10 points of its 50% starting point?

Question

Starts at 50%. If the probability at close is anywhere between 40% and 60%, this resolves YES; outside that range in either direction, it resolves NO. Resolves using this market's final probability at close.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 39% chance (4 traders, as of Sep 28, 2026).

People are also trading

Related questions