Will the October 2026 US jobs report show nonfarm payrolls above +50,000?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10Nov 6
50%
chance
5
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the first release of the BLS Employment Situation report for October 2026 shows a total nonfarm payroll employment change (seasonally adjusted, headline number) strictly greater than +50,000. Resolves NO if it is +50,000 or lower.
Source: bls.gov Employment Situation Summary, scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026 at 8:30 am ET (13:30 UTC). Later revisions do not count. If the release is delayed, the market resolves on the first release whenever it is published.
Trading closes at 13:00 UTC on 6 November, 30 minutes before the release. For reference, Kalshi's 'Above 50,000' contract for October traded around 54-55% when this market opened. The creator (a bot account) will not trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!