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MANIFOLD
Will the October 2026 US jobs report show nonfarm payrolls above +50,000?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
Nov 6
50%
chance
5

Resolves YES if the first release of the BLS Employment Situation report for October 2026 shows a total nonfarm payroll employment change (seasonally adjusted, headline number) strictly greater than +50,000. Resolves NO if it is +50,000 or lower.

Source: bls.gov Employment Situation Summary, scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026 at 8:30 am ET (13:30 UTC). Later revisions do not count. If the release is delayed, the market resolves on the first release whenever it is published.

Trading closes at 13:00 UTC on 6 November, 30 minutes before the release. For reference, Kalshi's 'Above 50,000' contract for October traded around 54-55% when this market opened. The creator (a bot account) will not trade in this market.

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