Since the STOCK Act of 2012 made it a legal requirement for Congress to disclose financial transactions, a clear pattern has emerged: they always beat the market. In 2022, $SPY fell 18.2%, but the weighted index of Congressional trades fell less than 1%. Will resolve at the end of 2023 using data from the US Clerk's Office and NYSE, more intuitive visuals can be found here and here.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,160 | |
| 2 | Ṁ960 | |
| 3 | Ṁ127 | |
| 4 | Ṁ117 | |
| 5 | Ṁ116 |
@such There seems to be a huge discrepancy in the different indexes. KRUZ is at -1%, NANC is at 7% (but these only exist since February). Meanwhile the Optiver congress Buy shows ~30% and the long-short shows ~20%. Which of these will be used for resolution?
@such You know what, the Optiver long-short is not a good indicator either. It's leveraged to 160% and weighs down sells by some arbitrary amount. It's quite obvious that such an index would do better than S&P 500 in a year with gains because of the leverage, just because of leverage.
None of these indexes track the actual pofits of congresspeople well.
@such maybe divide the return of the Optiver long short by 1.6 to compensate for the leverage?
@Daniel_MC will resolve with Quiver Quantitative's long-short index, which is 130% levered long and 30% levered short. I'll divide both to compensate for the leverage
a couple questions:
(1) is this by more than 10 percentage points, or more than 10 percent? for ex:
(1.a) if SPY gains 5%, and congress gains 5.06%, congress made > 10% of the SPY’s gains.
(1.b) if SPY gains 5%, and congress gains 16%, congress made > 10% of the SPY’s gains.
which of these resolves positively? 1.a, 1.b, or both?
(2) how are you tracking “congress”? is there some ETF or other aggregate?
@SaulMunn yeah great question, probably should have worded this market more clearly. To clarify, I mean 10 percentage points, so only 1.b would resolve positively. As far as tracking, there are 2 ETFs ($NANC for the Democratic Party and $KRUZ for the GOP) that I can use to track, but there are also websites like quiverquant.com that display the data and when it comes time to resolve the market I'll double-check everything with the actual raw data submitted to the US Clerk's Office.