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MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI and Anthropic both have moved off Unix-based operating systems by end of 2027?
3
Ṁ300Ṁ123
2028
18%
chance

Resolves YES if, by Dec 31, 2027, both OpenAI and Anthropic run most of their production workloads (training, inference, internal agents) on an operating system that is not Unix-based (not Linux, BSD, macOS, or another derivative of the Unix user/root security model). Resolves NO otherwise.

Linux with added sandboxing still counts as Unix-based, as does a new OS that runs most workloads in Linux VMs. Evidence: public statements or credible reporting. Employee laptops don't count.

Context: Tenobrus puts this at ~80%.

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