Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027? | Manifold

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

6

100Ṁ176

resolved Jan 6

Resolved

N/A

23

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Guardian is what the USSF calls their members (like a sailor in the Navy)

Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A Guardian must die on duty (in line of service) for this market to resolve YES. Death for any reason while not on duty does not count.

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bought Ṁ100 NO

this is an exact duplicate of https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-united-states-space-force-RunI2LR8S5 ?

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

18% chance. Guardian is what the USSF calls their members (like a sailor in the Navy) Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a death will only count if it is due to the job. An unrelated medical event (e.g., a heart attack) that occurs while a guardian is on duty will not count, unless the event itself was caused by something job-related.

@strutheo Just dying for any reason? Or in line of service?

@Quroe on duty

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