Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027? | Manifold

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

6

Ṁ100Ṁ176

resolved Jan 6

Resolved

N/A

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Guardian is what the USSF calls their members (like a sailor in the Navy)

Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A Guardian must die on duty (in line of service) for this market to resolve YES. Death for any reason while not on duty does not count.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

bought Ṁ100 NO

this is an exact duplicate of https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-united-states-space-force-RunI2LR8S5 ?

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

18% chance. Guardian is what the USSF calls their members (like a sailor in the Navy) Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a death will only count if it is due to the job. An unrelated medical event (e.g., a heart attack) that occurs while a guardian is on duty will not count, unless the event itself was caused by something job-related.

@strutheo Just dying for any reason? Or in line of service?

@Quroe on duty

People are also trading

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

US Space Force combat casualty during 2026?

Will any member of the US Armed Forces die in Greenland in 2026?

Will there be a Space National Guard established in the USA by the start of 2028?

Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2040?

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Will anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Will Space Force get its own service academy by 2030?

Related questions

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

US Space Force combat casualty during 2026?

Will any member of the US Armed Forces die in Greenland in 2026?

Will there be a Space National Guard established in the USA by the start of 2028?

Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2040?

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Will anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Will Space Force get its own service academy by 2030?