Resolved by poll after market closes and Reddit IPOs
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ236 | |
| 2 | Ṁ125 | |
| 3 | Ṁ96 | |
| 4 | Ṁ93 | |
| 5 | Ṁ80 |
It would have been good to note here that the only poll options would be "overvalued" and "undervalued", and not include a "market price seems right to me".
I expected "market price is fair" as an option that a nontrivial fraction of Manifold voters might take on the poll; not having it significantly changes the expected outcome for me, here.
@retr0id idk I'm betting based on the fact that everyone who bought at IPO can sell for a profit - this market still has a week or so, I expect more "rational" responses to come...
The concept of saying a share price is "too high" makes no sense anyway, it should be based on market cap. The simplest reasoning here is that it is clearly not "overvalued", given the price has doubled since public trading started
@Gen I guess it depends on how you interpret overvalued - clearly the IPO price was low compared to what people are willing to trade it at today, but I don't think that changes the fact that (imho) the price is still higher than it's objectively worth. (my opinion there is just based on general pessimism about reddit's future)
@strutheo but what we think the value is will be compared to $34 right?
If you can in fact sell it for more than $34 at the time of poll, why would anyone think $34 was overvalued? I suppose someone might be pessimistic about value of everything but are such people likely to be in majority?
