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@Dynd "A U.S. official confirmed to ABC News Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran. The official could not confirm whether Syria and Iraq sites were hit as well.
-ABC News' Martha Raddatz"
OK here is the AP and reuters , there was clearly an attack on Iran , the whole country's antiair defenses went off, zerohedge repeating nonsense as usual
neither israel or iran is saying who it was yet. but the US is saying it is israel to multiple main stream news outlets, that is enough for me
https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-mideast-tensions-4-19-2024-a7ccbae2e2844bab089e8e4377a24ddb
@strutheo I'm going off of https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781126103123607663; dunno if it'll be borne out but seemed plausible enough to push this to at least ~50
@strutheo How do you plan to resolve if it's unclear what happened? In particular, it's not too unlikely that the explosions are real but then Israel does not confirm or deny their involvement.
@strutheo please clarify whether these markets include attacks on Iranian proxies or forces outside of Iran, or only to attacks on Iranian territory.
@strutheo I'm betting assuming we're talking about attacking Iranian territory, and some of your comments have hinted at this, but it would be good to have it confirmed. There are reports at the moment that the most likely response from Israel will not involve attacking Iranian territory:
@chrisjbillington no proxies, has to be iran. but if it is directly iranian forces in another country, that might count
@chrisjbillington idk enough about iran's presence in the region, what other countries are they stationed in (not proxies)
@strutheo I have no clue, just that the media is reporting that the response "will most likely involve strokes against Iranian military forces and Iranian-backed proxies outside Iran".
I would guess the relevant Iranian forces are in territory controlled by their proxies - unlikey Israel is going to bomb some unrelated country even if Iranian military are there.
@Odoacre it's hard to make markets when you aren't a subject matter expert haha. The forces in Lebanon arent proxies ?
@strutheo yes, Hezbollah is funded/equipped by Iran. But saying attacking Hezbollah is attacking Iran would be similar to "Russia attacked the US in Ukraine"...
now another question is... what about the Iranian Embassy in Beirut?
@hidetzugu embassies i think i would count, assuming it is an actual attack that results in destruction/death . any arguments not to?