Will Israel attack Iran within one week of being attacked by them?
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resolved Apr 19
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YES
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@gpt_news_headlines Very flimsy source

@Dynd I can reopen if we're unsure, it seems like US officials are confirming

@Dynd "A U.S. official confirmed to ABC News Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran. The official could not confirm whether Syria and Iraq sites were hit as well.
-ABC News' Martha Raddatz"

@Dynd lmao zerohedge is the most flimsy source in existence , if not fake news entirely

@Dynd ill keep looking and will reopen tomorrow if something comes up though!

OK here is the AP and reuters , there was clearly an attack on Iran , the whole country's antiair defenses went off, zerohedge repeating nonsense as usual

neither israel or iran is saying who it was yet. but the US is saying it is israel to multiple main stream news outlets, that is enough for me

https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-mideast-tensions-4-19-2024-a7ccbae2e2844bab089e8e4377a24ddb

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19/

@strutheo Somebody voted for Clinton

@Dynd haha i didnt

96% at 410 trades

Something happened.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@strutheo Explosions in Isfahan and Natanz. Might be hard to get reliable information

bought Ṁ50 YES

@strutheo I'm going off of https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781126103123607663; dunno if it'll be borne out but seemed plausible enough to push this to at least ~50

@BenjaminCosman If it isn't Israel, really hope they are making sure Iran knows that.

@strutheo How do you plan to resolve if it's unclear what happened? In particular, it's not too unlikely that the explosions are real but then Israel does not confirm or deny their involvement.

@BenjaminCosman ill leave it closed for a bit until things become clear

reposted

israel attacked hezbollah today , does not count for this but related

@strutheo They do it every day.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@strutheo please clarify whether these markets include attacks on Iranian proxies or forces outside of Iran, or only to attacks on Iranian territory.

@strutheo I'm betting assuming we're talking about attacking Iranian territory, and some of your comments have hinted at this, but it would be good to have it confirmed. There are reports at the moment that the most likely response from Israel will not involve attacking Iranian territory:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/4/16/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-vows-response-to-iran

@chrisjbillington no proxies, has to be iran. but if it is directly iranian forces in another country, that might count

@strutheo might? We need certainly! What does it depend on?

@chrisjbillington idk enough about iran's presence in the region, what other countries are they stationed in (not proxies)

@strutheo I have no clue, just that the media is reporting that the response "will most likely involve strokes against Iranian military forces and Iranian-backed proxies outside Iran".

I would guess the relevant Iranian forces are in territory controlled by their proxies - unlikey Israel is going to bomb some unrelated country even if Iranian military are there.

So you want to resolve this yes if Israel attacks Lebanon with the excuse they are attacking Iranian forces stationed there ? That would be pretty lame.

@Odoacre it's hard to make markets when you aren't a subject matter expert haha. The forces in Lebanon arent proxies ?

@strutheo yes, Hezbollah is funded/equipped by Iran. But saying attacking Hezbollah is attacking Iran would be similar to "Russia attacked the US in Ukraine"...

now another question is... what about the Iranian Embassy in Beirut?

@hidetzugu no i will not count hezbollah as iran @Odoacre

@hidetzugu embassies i think i would count, assuming it is an actual attack that results in destruction/death . any arguments not to?

@strutheo I would count them as well, it was what started this whole thing after all

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