https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad

I guess we resolved as No.

For next time @strutheo, just pick an arbitrary deadline. There's no need for it to correspond to exactly 72h since an event that might be hard to find the exact time of.

Traders need certainty. It's not really acceptable from traders' perspective to not know what the deadline is, better to pick one than to spend time thinking about it whilst the uncertainty continues.

@chrisjbillington actually apologies @strutheo, I see you did say 2am local time would be the deadline for resolution.

I was confused because I read your comments after that seeking a more exact time for the purposes of market closure rather than resolution. That seems unnecessary though, if the deadline for the resolution criteria is 2am, you should just set the close time to that as well.

@chrisjbillington my b i was out and couldnt do the timezone conversion , 15 min left i believe !

@strutheo fair enough - fwiw you can always google "what time will it be in <my city> when it is 2am in israel" and google will tell you

I guess is was extremely unlikely when Israel attack Iran after 3 days.

@NickAllenc961 we have this now:

Will Israel attack Iran within one week of being attacked by them?

Will Israel attack Iran within 30 days of being attacked by them?

@strutheo what precise time corresponds to 72h after being attacked?

72h after midnight, local time in Iran, which is roughly when the attack was launched (I think)?

72h after 2am, local time in Israel, which is when explosions were first heard from Jerusalem?

72h after market creation? It looks like you created it at about 12:20AM Iran time which is 11:50pm Israel time.

Market close time is well after that so I assume isn't part of the criteria.

Similarly, must the attack, whatever it is, reach Iranian territory within the deadline to count? Or must it merely have been launched?

@chrisjbillington ill do 72h after 2am local time , when the first missles arrived in israel

if it is announced and the attack is in begun/progress before the time is up, ill count it yes

@chrisjbillington anyone know the EXACT TIME so i can set the close properly? all the news articles im finding have been updated since, its annoying

@strutheo no later than 23:30 UTC (1:30 am local)

https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1779292077886460213

@daniel sorry I meant 2:30 am, but it's reported earlier as well

@daniel https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-launches-wave-of-drones-at-israel-in-first-ever-direct-attack-idf-braces-to-intercept/

Here it's reported that the sirens started from 1:42 am local, or 22:42 utc

@strutheo which time will you use?

/strutheo/will-israeli-troops-set-foot-in-ira

Israel has more to gain by not retaliating and maintaining an ambiguous stance with much saber rattling - for minimum 2-3 weeks and certainly for far longer.

@BrentTollman How so?

Blood for the blood God. Share prices rising! Muahahahaa

/strutheo/will-israel-attack-iran-within-30-d

rumors abound!

Israel needs to retaliate. They have been way too soft for way too long