Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 72 hours of being attacked by them?
resolved Apr 22



Using similar criteria as Metaculus

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes:

  1. Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."

  2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.

  3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.

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@NicolausAllen starting to think this is a troll? @Joshua what do you think

@strutheo @Joshua It says here that This is a new dimension of any potential conflict that needs to be taken into consideration - the conflict with Iran is no longer in the shadows. Iran has breached a previous threshold by attacking directly, meaning that Israel will now have to assume that this can happen the next time it contemplates targeting an IRGC general or an Iranian nuclear scientist.

I guess we resolve this as no tommorow.

@NickAllenc961 please only post stuff about iran attacking israel here, we dont need all these other random articles

@strutheo It's fairly relevant, actually. Oil price as a proxy for probabilities of escalation is roughly predictive. The article below less so though.

@NickAllenc961 wrong market?

@NickAllenc961 Well, Israel warned our country that they will attack Iran again within the next day or two.

@NickAllenc961 No, the article you posted is referring to the 24-48h notice that was given to the US prior to this most recent attack, it's not about a future attack.

13% in 29 trades

@NickAllenc961 100% in 290 trades is absolutely possible.

@NickAllenc961 hey you might be confused over why i wrote '50% at 50 traders' on the other market - this is only interesting because the market is staying so evenly balanced at a high number of individuals. it isnt to figure out how many trades it takes to get to 100%

I guess will resolved it as No.

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bought Ṁ10 YES
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