Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within one week of being attacked by them?
resolved Apr 26



Using similar criteria as Metaculus

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes:

  1. Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."

  2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.

  3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.

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1% chance = 51 Holders and 117 trades

We've tied, thanks to 38 holders with 91 trades.

@NicolausAllen this market isnt tied, and has 41 holders?

bought Ṁ13 YES

@strutheo You're it isn't tied, we have 39 holders now.

@NicolausAllen We've been tied again, 42 holders and 95 trades straight.

@NickAllenc961 Yeh, that's interesting. Airlines are closing fights for passover tho, which is a fairly big deal.

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