Will a sudden death shake up the 2024 US Presidential election?
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35
Ṁ1219
Jan 1
11%
chance

Resolves YES if one of the candidates, running mates, or another person key to the election cycle by my judgement (ex: a supreme court justice deciding on the Trump case) dies before the election takes place.

NA if uncertain, or I can poll Manifold to see if they think the death counts.

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How about King Charles given recent announcements? Cultural icon but perhaps not a direct influence even in UK Elections

@SusanneinFrance right now i dont think id count charles or navalny unless new consequences of their death come out

Or Alexei Navalny “sudden death” assassination— to my mind a signal highly correlated with tfg callout to Putin “do whatever you want”, Tucker interview, Maxsim execution in Spain, threats of nuclear revenge on US, UK, et al., belligerence towards Norway claiming Svalbard Archipelago based on Russian outpost at The Pyramid*— a bunch of loud saber rattling all timedcwith Navalny death

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramiden

What if there's a politically important match of Super Smash Bros that goes to sudden death and the results change the election in a pretty direct manner? Would this resolve yes?

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