Resolves YES if one of the candidates, running mates, or another person key to the election cycle by my judgement (ex: a supreme court justice deciding on the Trump case) dies before the election takes place.
NA if uncertain, or I can poll Manifold to see if they think the death counts.
1,000
3.00@SusanneinFrance right now i dont think id count charles or navalny unless new consequences of their death come out
Or Alexei Navalny “sudden death” assassination— to my mind a signal highly correlated with tfg callout to Putin “do whatever you want”, Tucker interview, Maxsim execution in Spain, threats of nuclear revenge on US, UK, et al., belligerence towards Norway claiming Svalbard Archipelago based on Russian outpost at The Pyramid*— a bunch of loud saber rattling all timedcwith Navalny death