Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?
➕
Plus
43
Ṁ3178
2041
60%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Just to clarify: they city itself could pass the ban and this would resolve YES? The title suggests that the country would need to be the entity responsible for the ban.

@Pykess if the city does it, it will count

if the country has a definition of city we will defer to their local usage

From google, not sure how accurate

City status in the UK can be associated with having a cathedral or a university, a particular form of local government, or having a large population. Although any of these might be used to justify the popular use of the term 'city', in formal terms UK city status is granted by the monarch, on the advice of ministers.Nov 14, 2022

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 40% order

@strutheo yep, there are towns with several hundred thousand inhabitants such as Reading or Bournemouth which officially aren't "cities" for no good reason other than no monarch having bothered to declare them so.
(Dunno how well the local colloquial usage there matches the official city status.)

Hmmmm... most cars last around 15 years. If the ban happens, it would have to consider how many people who own cars that are not capable of autonomous driving it is requiring to leave their cars behind. And it would have to consider the burden on residents, who might have to get new cars. If it's a city where most residents own cars. I can't see it happening without at least 5 years notice, or some kind of "park your old car here and take transit into the city" system.

But one city somewhere, that has good mass transit...

I assume vehicles operated by emergency serviced are excluded by this? Or does this only resolve to YES if the fire brigade is obliged to drive autonomously too? What definition of city are you using?

@PaulMuller

yes emergency vehicles are ok, talking more about a ban on civilian human driven cars. if there are a few exceptions that wont change that there is a ban in place.

city determined by manifold poll if there is confusion

How big does the city have to be? Would Zermatt qualify? It's already banned outside cars and only has electric busses in the streets, so transitioning to self-driving would be relatively feasible.

@OlegEterevsky they do not do it for AI reasons though, it has been like that way. maybe if they switch to AI driving

@strutheo I agree that currently it doesn't resolve the question. It's just a question whether a relatively small city like that would count

@OlegEterevsky yes based on what ive seen so far, i think it would

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules