Will 1000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025?
27
100Ṁ2729
Apr 1
70%
chance

resolves YES if 1000 or more herds are affected by the end of march 2025, as reported by this website

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1

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The websites last data point was March 27th so the market resolve after the last four days are added even if it’s after April 1st correct?

also, if poultry counts as herds of livestock then the answer is YES
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/data-map-commercial.html

if you count 'flocks' as 'herds' (definition of livestock seems umbrella, but poultry tends to be called flocks)

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BiologyTranslated IMO the question was clear as referring to herds "as reported by this website", so the definition widening to include poultry would not be correct (unless the website itself makes that change)

@BiologyTranslated I also think we should wait until the numbers have been updated but I don't think flocks should be included unless they were included in the data from the start.

bought Ṁ75 YES

995 official but some non official cases from potential grassroots reporting- i'll try to find some official sources, perhaps with reporting lag (as seen with measles and magnified by public health cuts) we can resolve maybe after April 1st PLUS ~half of incubation period for symptoms- to allow for reporting of cases backdated before end of March that weren't caught or reported in time?

992 with 9 days still to go, it could be close...

reposted

930+ now

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