Will we get more than 10 "Will this market get more than X traders" markets in the next month?
Will we get more than 10 "Will this market get more than X traders" markets in the next month?
9
100Ṁ2106
resolved Apr 16
Resolved
YES

Any market that resolves based on the number of traders primarily counts, post the markets below as proof. Only markets between 12:01am 3/16 and 4/16 count (so the market posted earlier today counts).

  • Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Meta-markets:

    • Markets that are focused on or about the target markets will not be counted.

  • Update 2025-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market Timing Ambiguity: If a market's creation time is unclear but it shows a first trade at 6am on 3/16, it will be counted.

    • Trader Count Variant: A market or poll that reports more than 5 traders/participants will be included, even though this differs slightly from the standard criterion of the number of traders on one market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ93
2Ṁ29
3Ṁ4
4Ṁ1
5Ṁ0


Sort by:
2mo

@evan Looks about right to me, I can't tell if the 3rd market was created in time because the first trade was at 6am 3/16, and I don't know how to find the exact starting time, but I'll count it. Last one is about the number of markets and polls which have more than 5 traders or participants, which is slightly different from the number of traders on one market, but I'll count it.

bought Ṁ89 YES3mo

I am willing to make 10 of those markets if necessary

3mo

The meta-markets about those markets don't count

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy