Will I (Sophia Wisdom) get a gf (any gender) by 2024?
Will I (Sophia Wisdom) get a gf (any gender) by 2024?
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1.7kṀ9311resolved Jan 2
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I broke up with my previous girlfriend a few weeks ago and am now vaguely looking for a new girlfriend. I asked out a friend of mine recently but she rejected me. I am now semi-actively looking for a new partner.
For resolution "gf" will just be anyone i consider to be my "gf". For context I considered my previous gf to be my gf within a ~2 weeks of going out with them, and gf before that maybe 4 weeks. I sometimes cuddle and have sex i guess with Sinclair Chen but we are not gfs to me even though i counted as 0.5gf for her market. I am primarily monogamous.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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