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MANIFOLD
Yes or no? Secret market
37
Ṁ100Ṁ3.9k
resolved Feb 12
Resolved
NO

Resolution criteria will not be disclosed until - up to a few weeks after resolution

$2a$12$owJqkajI.eBhsg5p7bd8Oe99Jk2V3Ae00VsUxN64Ll82/Ok4Jsl.W

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It's happening again. It never ends. It will never end.

It has concluded.

@skibidist awesome

.

It's a NO ... after several interviews, tens of emails and over 3 weeks of gruelling dd ... sounds like there is a high chance of getting in next batch, but while the valuation premium their logo grants is compelling, I really really didn't sign up for dealing with this kind of bs

@skibidist morons

it is outrageous to have spent 3 weeks dealing with this

@skibidist do we know

@jim No! but it's on them. I hope it ends today one way or another.

Down to 20% imho

Wild stuff happening, I'd put the probability at 60% now (optimistically 75%), and ETA for resolution is now next week, but there is still ample space to end up with a NO.

@traders small update to my estimated odds possible tonight, resolution likely tomorrow eod

@skibidist It should probably start decaying now (just a guess, maybe not) with a half-life of 1-2 days

I love that they have now allowed the avatar to glow. The avatar itself is topically adjacent to the subject of this market.

if you don't precommit with a hash i don't trust you enough to bet

@SavioMak good idea!

@SavioMak done, but there will be a few weeks delay between resolution and reveal

also, I expected it to resolve tonight but instead the following happened:
- i believe the odds have just increased to 50%
- a possibility for me to influence the outcome in a limited way has returned

the real value is probably around 20%

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