Any type of venue (schools, sports institutions, military) where there is a federally mandated formal process for checking the genitalia of a person to establish their sex. Resolves as soon as it's established.

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This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through BlueSky. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.

I will not be trading in those markets (except buying & selling at market creation to increase trader count).

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Inspired by the Rumble market series by @CodeandSolder .

• Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Must be under the federal system (so not state prisons)

  • Incidental occurrences resolve to PROB (e.g., a single warden introducing it)

  • Probability increases steeply with the number of instances

• Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:

  • In institutions like schools, sports institutions, and military, the compulsory genital inspection must be tied to federal funds or guidance.

  • PROB will be proportional to prevalence and federal involvement.