I think the probability is less than 50 percent, but for the Melania coin, some insider coins will get unlocked before the resolution date, so this could also trigger a Trump coin crash.

The level of midwittery required to buy into this in the first place is equal to the midwittery required to trade this thing based on chart divination aka "technical analysis".

I made the same market for August, which will be after a good amount of insider unlocks: https://manifold.markets/HannesLynchburg/trump-coin-has-a-90-drawdown-at-any-nU8nuU9SPZ