This market resolves Yes if:
Trump releases or begins to implement some sort of economic plan (e.g. tariffs)
The stock or bond markets crash in response
Trump does not implement the announced plans due to the market crash
This market resolves N/A if Trump does not assume the presidency in 2025.
Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
The market will not resolve NO under any circumstance until January 1, 2026.
Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market Crash Confirmation:
The referenced stock market crash confirms that the first part of the resolution criteria has been met.
Tariffs Implementation Update:
If the announced tariffs are not implemented or are walked back, the market will resolve YES.
There is a leaning towards resolving YES if Congress blocks the tariffs as well.
Update 2025-12-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they are resolving YES. See the linked comment for detailed reasoning comparing this situation to the Liz Truss case.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ305 | |
| 2 | Ṁ105 | |
| 3 | Ṁ53 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
People are also trading
yeah I have no idea how to resolve this
on one hand
- april announced tariffs crashed the stock market
- those tariffs were never implemented, except on china, and this one was walked back
- clear YES case
on the other
- august tariffs actually were implemented
- these are at a level that is still quite high, even though on average it is much lower than april
- some tariff rates actually increased in august relative to april
- liz truss was forced to completely throw out her mini budget, which isn't what happened here; a YES resolution feels misleading in that sense
@SaviorofPlant Maybe in this case it could resolve 50% or 66%? Half of the criteria seem to be fulfilled. I guess other option is to wait for the 31st Dec in case another crash happens, although seems pretty unlikely.
@SaviorofPlant Looking more closely into the Liz Truss situation that was the inspiration for this market, it seems like they didn't throw out the entire mini budget - for example, Sunak's government still moved forward with a National Insurance cut and cuts to the SDLT, even though they were paired with other tax increases the second time. This makes it a more fitting comparison for Liberation Day than I had previously thought.
Truss proposed massive tax cuts but the Conservatives ultimately implemented watered down ones to avoid spooking the markets again, just as Trump proposed massive tariffs only to implement smaller ones to avoid spooking the markets again. I am resolving YES.
The first part of this market's resolution criteria has played out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash
If the tariffs are not implemented or are walked back, this market will resolve YES. (Leaning towards resolving YES if Congress acts to block the tariffs as well.)
@SaviorofPlant will you wait for the market response on Monday to Trump's tariff EO on Canada + Mexico and resolve NO in case no crash takes place? What would it take to resolve the market otherwise?
Trump's announced tariff plans are so ridiculously bad that I think this is a realistic possibility 🙃
I will not trade on this market though (since there's some subjectivity in resolution), except a 1 mana trade to increase the number of traders