What will be the cover of Nick Bostrom's new book?
resolved Apr 7
Option 2 (snowman)
Option 1 (Sisyphus)
Option 3 (big owl)
Option 4 (owl with tophat)
Option 5 (other Sisyphus)

Nick Bostrom is coming out with a new book, and is requesting ratings of book covers from visitors to his site. You can take the survey here: link

Resolution criteria:

This market resolves to whatever book cover is chosen for the book, or to "Other" if a different cover is used. Altered but recognizable versions of the five proposed covers will still count for resolving the choice.

See also:


Option 1

Option 2

Option 3

Option 4

Option 5


I am not affiliated or known to Nick Bostrom in any way. He did not request me to make this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

My copy arrived and I can confirm the snowman is real.

bought Ṁ750 Option 2 (snowman) YES

The cursor even turns into a mitton. And the website starts snowing.

@traders the pre-order image depicts the snowman, which I think is sufficient to resolve this market. if there are no objections I'll resolve in a few hours.

@singer I put a bet on that cover earlier today, but I think the market should wait until it can actually be purchased, as there’s a chance it may change.

@Santiago I'm inclined to agree.

boughtṀ300Option 2 (snowman) YES

@Gustas Wow. I just randomly saw the book on Amazon and went here to buy more of the snowman option. And you just bought it up to 90% just 2 hours ago. What are the chances?!

I like the Sisyphus concept, but the two options above are pretty bad. Even ChatGPT's first attempt is way better imo.

cover 1 looks so bad while cover 3 would fit right next to superintelligence and also looks rad on its own. 4 is cool as well

What is the aesthetic argument for Option 5 being worse than Option 1?

@singer I personally find the monochrome a bit better. It justifies the premise by evoking ennui, and it feels more appropriate to a work of academic philosophy.

The only thing is that I think I like the toga in last one more than the more modern garb in the first - I didn't immediately draw the Sisyphus connection and I think the toga would drive it home.

bought Ṁ10 Other YES

@singer in 5 he's sitting awkwardly on top of the boulder and that's obviously a mistake, he's going to hiccup and then get flattened as it starts down the hill again.

Also in 5 we can't see his face, he's looking the wrong way.

bought Ṁ10 Option 1 (Sisyphus) YES

The owl covers look like "how to code" books, so bad.

What on earth is that snowman cover 😂

@GraceKind apparently the one they chose!

@justifieduseofFallibilism apparently we don't live in a solved world, given the poor state of the book's cover

What if it's Sisyphus 1 in the colors and proportions of Sisyphus 2?

@33cb I think it would still be Sisyphus 1 as long as that is the starting image that was taken and modified. If the artist draws a Sisyphus 3 which combines both of them stylistically that would be Other

@singer huh, seems like that should be 50% each?

@singer other makes sense thanks

@MartinRandall that's one interpretation, but this market is dependent, so only one gets picked.

@singer you can still pick two options to split, it just has to add up to 100% total

@MartinRandall I see, had no idea that was possible. I'm adhering to using Other for stylistic splits, but I'll keep that option in mind.

More related questions