will the Inverse Cramer effect hit Nvidia in six months (May 2024)?
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May 22
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resolution criteria updated after publishing, description updated below

this is a duplicate market with a longer timeline - feel free to bet on the original if you think the Cramer effect will kick in by the end of the trading year.


There's a reason The Inverse Cramer Strategy is a popular trope. Recent examples below, though there are many noteworthy instances when going against Cramer paid off.
Binance

Kyle Vogt (who apparently resigned for personal reasons, but still)

Given that Cramerisms are often seen as omens, should we assume that his enthusiasm toward Nvidia is a bad sign?

To make it easy-ish, I'll resolve this Yes/No within six months if NVDA is down 10% from today's market close ($499.44 on 21/11) and remains for one week.


Resolves Yes if the stock value at market close remains 10% for one week before 21/5. Otherwise, resolves No.

*Obviously given Nvidia's position in the market these days, a Yes resolution feels like a bit of a stretch. Still, we can't underestimate the power of Jim Cramer to be horribly wrong, particularly with a six-month breadth.

ETA: target is $449.49 for one week, consecutive

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Cramer strikes again

not looking good for the pro-Inverse Cramer crowd this time...

currently $452.33

NVDA is immune from cramer

@firstuserhere this is hilarious. he's been tempting fate for a while with this one.

can we do a welfare check on his dog (named Nvidia), then?

he's doubling down

I think it’s possible there’s going to an AI Winter because of current overhype, which would cause Nadia to crash. But just to be sure I understand the resolution criteria, if it tanks by 10%+ and then recovers so it’s only down 9% after six months, this market resolves as a No?

@KLiamSmith You're right and I should really think things through before I create markets 😅

Particularly because it would defeat the purpose if it tanked and then by some grace happened to be within a 10% margin on the final trading day.

Maybe I need to recalibrate this one.

@shankypanky No worries, you make a lot of creative markets and I hope you keep making them!

@KLiamSmith thanks! what do you think would be a good resolution here? I think I'll update it. 10%+ reduction for x amount of time in the next 6 months?

X = a week? two weeks? any opinion?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@shankypanky Yeah, a 10% drop for even a week would definitely qualify as an Inverse Cramer.

@KLiamSmith thanks Liam - I'm going to update it to resolve if that happens in the next six months

guess now I'm set to be attentive to a stock I don't own 😅

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