Will RFK and Trump make a joint appearance before Aug 26th?
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resolved Aug 24
Resolved
YES

RFK Jr. is making a public address this Friday, August 23rd, in Phoenix, AZ. He is expected to announce that he is dropping out of the presidential rate, and many believe he will endorse Trump. Notably, Trump is also in the Phoenix area for a Turning Point PAC rally the same day.

This market resolves Yes if RFK Jr. and Donald Trump make a joint appearance any time between the Kennedy Address (starting Aug 23 at 12p MT) and Aug 25 at 11:59p MT.

The two must be in the same place at the same time, deliberately, and must be together. Some examples of scenarios that count for a Yes resolution include:

  • Trump is at the Kennedy Address

  • Kennedy is at the Trump rally

  • Trump and Kennedy are in another location together, interacting with one another and potentially an audience or journalists. (for ex, a third event where they both speak; a brief moment together where they talk to journalists even spontaneously; flying together on a plane and sharing a video to a social platform)

This will not resolve for any time spent together outside of the window listed above - if a prior meeting was recorded before the Friday address and shared afterward, it won't count.

I won't bet in this market in case there is any unanticipated subjectivity.

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RFK's Address is over, and he's been pretty vocal about his support for Trump, even sharing about ongoing conversations and meetings with him and his family.

This market resolves by the end of the weekend

still some speculation that RFK hasn't quite decided what to do, but now another element enters the rumour mill:

before the middle of this week I found it very unlikely hed end his campaign. I feel a lot less confident about that now, and this doesn't help LOL

my last threads of doubt remain based on the comments hes made in the past about Trump and his own marriage

"Even if it was recorded within the window". I don't understand why are you excluding video recording of them together within the time window. Unless I'm misunderstanding.

You're right, I misspoke - editing now, sorry. What I meant to say was that it won't count if it's prerecorded, even if it's shared in the market time window.

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