what will be true in Ecuador? (read description)
13
1kṀ3476
resolved Jul 17
Resolved
YES
State of Emergency will last more than one week (from 9 Jan)
Resolved
YES
State of Emergency will last more than one month (from 9 Jan)
Resolved
N/A
Kidnapped police officers will be killed
Resolved
N/A
Prison guard hostages will be killed
Resolved
N/A
Prison (non-officer) hostages will be killed
Resolved
N/A
There will be an announcement of notable political reform, referencing cartel/gang violence or internal armed conflict.
Resolved
N/A
More than 1000 people will die in the conflict
Resolved
N/A
Civilian hostages will be killed
Resolved
NO
Neighbouring countries will get involved to support the Ecuadorian government (tactically)
Resolved
NO
Adolfo Macías, alias “Fito” will be killed/found dead
Resolved
NO
Adolfo Macías, alias “Fito” will return to prison
Resolved
NO
The Ecuadorian government will negotiate with the cartels to stop the current outbreak of violence
Resolved
NO
Noboa ceases being President

[open for adding new answers]

within the last hour, gunmen stormed a TV news station in Ecuador. this comes after a State of Emergency, and the president has now announced that the country has entered an "internal armed conflict."

things we apparently know:

  • At least seven police officers have been kidnapped by gang members since the state of emergency was declared.

  • A 60-day state of emergency began in Ecuador on Monday after a convicted gang leader vanished from his prison cell.

  • President Daniel Noboa signed an executive order declaring an internal armed conflict and listed several organised crime groups as "terrorist organisations" and "non-state actors".

  • Noboa issued another decree designating 20 drug trafficking gangs operating in the country as terrorist groups and authorizing Ecuador’s military to “neutralize” these groups within the bounds of international humanitarian law.

  • Adolfo Macías, alias “Fito” and leader of Los Choneros gang, wasn’t in his cell, and by Monday they hadn’t found him or explained what had happened.

  • Riots have broken out in at least six prisons, and multiple guards have been taken hostage.

what will be true as a result? open to responses but they must be added before the action occurs. please provide proof when commenting, for a swift resolution.

unserious or predetermined answers will be N/A at my discretion. I reserve the right to counter-resolve against trolls - so don't do that unless you want to gift me that sweet liquidity mana (in which case just skip a step and send it to me and basically don't troll).

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I'm going to NA the remainder of these things - according to wikipedia there is an "ongoing Ecuador conflict" but a lot of the things listed don't seem to be undoubtedly directly related to the incident that sparked this market.

neighbouring countries only strengthened protection at the borders for themselves, not joined in the conflict

no negotiations afaict

sold Ṁ5 YES

afaict Fito has not been found or arrested and remains at large

Anyone have suggestions for markets to add regarding the arrest of the former Ecuadorian VP at the Mexican embassy?

What does this mean exactly?

I've just seen a note that Fito was serving a 34-year sentence (organised crime, murder) and previously escaped in 2013, only to be recaptured three months later.

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