Trump just spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville - a highly anticipated speech.
Polymarket has a question: Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve? that now looks like it may be disputed.
You can watch the speech on YouTube to see for yourself. Trump mentions he will build a "stockpile" of Bitcoin, which some say is equivalent to a reserve. Others say this isn't an explicit announcement, or akin to a reserve.
This market resolves in line with Polymarket's resolution.
If it does not go to dispute (and simply resolves Yes in line with the current proposal) this market resolves NA.
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in the end, Polymarket clarified and the market resolved Yes without going to further dispute. thanks for playing ✌️
update (because I realise it wasn't fully clear and NA felt wrong for some): it was disputed without going to a vote on the outcome. in my head, it was a longshot to go to Uma for a vote (and then I would resolve Yes) but I left this too murky because, technically, the dispute was raised twice even if it was shot down. I'm resolving this market Yes.
the market has climbed to 97%. the (first round) dispute window closes at 4p PT today, July 27th. if a dispute is not proposed in this round, it resolves Yes. you can track the status on the original market:
https://polymarket.com/event/trump-to-announce-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-in-july?tid=1722114944845
ftr: the market is most likely to resolve Yes and not go to dispute.
i thought it might be treated as a commodity like this,
this describes our "National Stockpile" of commodities as a "reserve". meaning they're synonymous in the context Trump used it. All National stockpiles are reserves but not all reserves are national stockpiles. He just got more specific with the type of reserve.
https://www.dla.mil/Portals/104/Documents/Strategic%20Materials/DNSC%20History.pdf
is the argument that this is too outdated? im genuinely confused.
I think what Lummis proposed is definitely a strategic reserve -- you buy bitcoin and hold it. What Trump proposed -- that they not sell seized Bitcoin and stockpile it -- is definitely not what Lummis is proposing. And what Trump proposed is not how the US currently operates our petroleum strategic reserve (whereas Lummis is proposing something extremely similar to the petroleum strategic reserve).
here's a quote from a comment on the market from a trader that doesn't hold a position but outlays how he sees things. I think this is a good differentiation between how many people would consider a Financial Reserve and what Trump has described.
(I'm not sure if it's the typical perspective because this isn't my wheelhouse, but I think it's reasonable to consider a physical reserve and a financial reserve differently - a stockpile seems like a different case when you're referring to physical goods as in your example or simply not selling what's already on hand, and building a reserve of a currency)
unfortunately, imo, this seems like a case where the market would have benefited from a definition or criteria around what qualifies as a "Reserve" for resolution but absent that (and a dispute), I imagine they'll just resolve in line with the seeming majority.