To define falling out:
A dismissal from any positions associated to the White House
A public feud on any social media platform that results in a “block” of the other party by one of the other parties
more than 3 credible news reports indicating Musk is less close with Trump; only 2 are needed if a pejorative nickname is given to Elon
@Riley12 It's the period where Musk will be first exercising his infuence and pressing for more power within the administration. It'll be the first time that they need to work together in a meaningful way. That'll bring some stress.
On the other hand, the falling out has to go public for the market to know about it. Someone would have to be so fed up that they'll burn bridges. It's pretty quick for that.
@DanHomerick Even if things don't start well it's very likely Elon wouldn't take it public so soon
Edit: actually, this market needs more rules. Does some WaPo article alleging they had a major falling out count? I would think it would have to be from the mouth of Elon or Trump.