Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price closes at or above $100,000 USD at any point during February 2026. Resolution will be determined using the closing price from Yahoo Finance's BTC-USD historical data or equivalent major cryptocurrency exchange data. If the price reaches $100,000 intraday but closes below it, the market resolves NO.

Background

Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,766 as of late January 2026, requiring approximately a 14% gain to reach $100,000. Bitcoin has remained stuck around $88,000 amid recent market volatility. Analysts remain dour on the outlook for crypto prices given the looming government shutdown as well as delays in passage of the Clarity Act.

Considerations

Analysts note BTC is likely to remain range-bound between $85,000 and $94,500, suggesting the $100,000 threshold represents a significant breakout above current technical resistance levels. Prediction markets assign the highest probability (46%) to Bitcoin finishing in the $86,000-$88,000 range, indicating low near-term expectations for a move to six figures.

This description was generated by AI.