resolves YES if there's an event with all of the following properties:

• more than 50 attendees

• organized by staff at manifold or manifund or similarly adjacent folks (e.g. me if i don't work there would count)

• has the name "manifest" or some portmanteau in the name (e.g. "manivibefest" or "lessfest" would count)

• is at least nominally for prediction markets, forecasting, and other related topics (betting, mechanism design, impact markets, etc)

i've seen a few markets about whether there will be a "manifest 2025," but it seems quite plausible that the next manifest will be run before 2025 — in the fall or early winter of 2024.