Will there be a Manifest in 2024?
39
16k
2025
99%
chance

manifestconference.net

manifold is likely to host going to host hosted a conference in 2023, called "Manifest 2023"

this market resolves YES if manifold hosts a conference or equivalent of similar purpose/scope as outlined for Manifest 2023. resolves YES even if the name changes, or if it's not exclusively hosted by manifold. resolves NO if there's a similar conference that's not hosted at all by manifold.

edit: changed the title "Will there be a Manifest 2024?" -> "Will there be a Manifest in 2024?" in case the name isn't "Manifest 2024," but (e.g.) "Manifest 2" or something.

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@saulmunn resolves YES

Seems like a market where nobody should value NO at its "true" price because a NO world might well be one where Manifold has shut down.

@WilliamEhlhardt i think the vast majority of the NO % is from the manifold team deciding not to run another manifest, not because manifold shuts down