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MANIFOLD
When will Manifest 2024 tickets sell out?
14
Ṁ375Ṁ3.6k
resolved Jun 17
100%97%
They don't sell out until during the conference (or they don't sell out at all)
0.1%
3/23-4/5
0.2%
4/6-4/19
0.3%
4/20-5/3
0.5%
5/4-5/17
0.2%
5/18-5/31
1.1%
6/1-6/7 [warning: duration 1w, other buckets are duration 2w]

resolves to the date that standard tickets are sold out.

this question is exclusively about standard tickets to Manifest 2024. supporter tickets & student tickets do not count toward the resolution. tickets to other events — even if related to manifest, like Summer Camp or LessOnline — do not count do not count toward the resolution.

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bought Ṁ200 YES

conference started and the bot is saying tickets are still being bought

@Bayesian yes, tickets are still on sale

Dan boughtṀ100 NO

Seems like they're only going up to $499 on May 13, so this wouldn't resolve YES unless they further increase?

@DanMan314 see my comment: https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/when-will-manifest-2024-tickets-sel-fe532aa13023#xn792b06fx

I read that as 5/4-5/17 not resolving YES unless there's another increase that brings ticket price above $799 by the 17th? Am I missing something?

@DanMan314 no, you’re not missing anything; that interpretation is correct

hmm, so i realize i worded this really poorly. we'll likely never "sell out" of tickets... but simply increase price alongside demand. already, we plan to increase prices for standard tickets on may 13, but if we e.g. get 500 tickets before then — and hit 750, which is ~our max — we still wouldn't have "sold out," but rather make the price of standard tickets commensurate with the demand (i.e. exorbitantly expensive).

not sure how to resolve this now. by default, i'll go with "if/when standard tickets cost ≥$799," which was double the price of standard tickets originally.

@saulmunn why did you buy this up so much?

@EliLifland because we'll be increasing prices on may 13

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