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MANIFOLD
How many people will compete in OPTIC Boston?
25
Ṁ1.9kṀ27k
resolved Dec 4
100%98%
51-75
0.0%
<=25
0.9%
26-50
0.9%
76-100
0.1%
101-125
0.0%
126-150
0.0%
>=151

opticforecasting.com

in-person forecasting tournament for undergrads! dec 2, 2023 at MIT :)

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68 competitors! resolves to 51-75 :)

in future tournaments, i’ll close it morning-of, right before everyone arrives

@saulmunn Does this resolve on dec 3 like the resolution date says, or when the correct value is known?

Or does anyone have any info whatsoever?

edit: info was in an email i may not have received

Anyone know where it is on campus?

You get 25% of my profits in tips if info u provide lets me make money and find the optic tourney place before 50% of participnts

@TheBayesian Did you find it?

@toms Yes ty!

arbitrage with:

79 signups right now, with 61 expected.

(we ask "what's the probability you'll actually attend?" on the registration form. expected attendance is [# of signups]*[mean p(attending)].)