MANIFOLD
When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2024 M3 MacBook Pro?
2
Ṁ250Ṁ157
2041
May 3, 2028
4%
Mar-Jun 2026
16%
Jul-Sep 2026
8%
Oct-Dec 2026
34%
2027
22%
2028
4%
2029
4%
2030
4%
2031-2035
4%
2036+

Based on the previous market by @DanielFilan:

https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/when-will-asahi-linux-be-ready-enou

Asahi Linux is a project to support Linux on M-series Apple computers.

I want to know when I'll be able to take a Zoom call, with or without headphones, on a 2024 13-inch MacBook Air using an M3 chip. Specifically, I'll say this can happen when the following features are all listed as supported on the relevant wiki page:

  • Installer

  • Devicetree

  • Main display

  • Keyboard

  • Touchpad

  • WiFi

  • 3.5mm jack

  • Speakers

  • Microphones

  • Webcam

"Supported" means not a WIP: I'll count it as supported if it's listed as asahi-edge, linux-asahi, or upstreamed on the current wiki page. If the wiki page goes down, I'll do my best to ascertain whether developers are representing the features as usable. I'll only count features as "listed as supported" if it's displayed on the relevant website for >=24 contiguous hours (so an accidental error quickly reversed wouldn't count).

All dates are in America/New_York time.

The market resolves to the date range which contains the end of the first 24-hour period when all these features are supported.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy