Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to prison by any South Korean court before December 31, 2025. The sentencing must be publicly reported by reputable news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or The Korea Herald. If no such sentencing occurs within this timeframe, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Yoon Suk Yeol, the former President of South Korea, was impeached by the National Assembly on December 14, 2024, following his declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024. The Constitutional Court upheld his impeachment on April 4, 2025, removing him from office. Subsequently, Yoon was arrested on January 15, 2025, and indicted for insurrection on January 26, 2025. If convicted of insurrection, he faces the death penalty or life imprisonment. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• Legal Proceedings: Yoon's trial for insurrection began on April 14, 2025. The duration and outcome of the trial are uncertain, and a conviction is required for a prison sentence to be imposed. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Potential Appeals: Even if convicted, Yoon may appeal the decision, potentially delaying the final sentencing beyond 2025.

• Presidential Immunity: While Yoon was impeached and removed from office, certain legal immunities may still apply, affecting the trial's progress and outcome.
  

Traders should monitor reputable news sources for updates on Yoon's legal proceedings to make informed predictions.

I will not be betting on this market.